The recent Assembly Polls have been interpreted variously as invincibility of Solo Women Mamata and Jayalalitha, BJP succeeding towards its goal of ‘Congress mukt Bharat emerging as the true national party, Congress and the Left as national parties on their death throes. On the face of the results these statements appear true. However, given the character of Indian politics, the nature and manner of party management, personality based structure of these parties and the caste based identity politics that is prevalent in India, there is no final word about anything that is being said and what can happen in the future. But some things are apparent with regard to what Indians look forward to during elections. That applies to the victory or loss of Indian political parties starting from Lok Sabha 2014, Delhi-Bihar last year to the recently concluded elections.

No anti-incumbency where development is experienced

If Congress tries to wriggle out of the defeats by claiming anti-incumbency in Assam and Kerala, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu call the bluff disproving it completely. TMC and ADMK have managed decisive victories even defying corruption cases slapped on some of their party leaders and colleagues. But in reality what seems to have dominated voters’ minds is social development; trust in the leadership of the parties and the capability to triangulate various identity groups into a hegemonic interest block. This is very clear in the case of TMC in Bengal where Mamata Banerjee’s party has been able to get the allegiance of Bengal’s largest Dalit caste, the Namashudras, the Matua sect and rural Muslims, the farming class in Bengal. These groups, especially the Muslims, onceused to support CPI (M), but now, stand behind Mamata because of her support for their issues.
During Mamata’s five years, though large infrastructure projects were not a great take off, certainly her focus on the poor, especially by utilising National Rural Employment Guarantee Act,(NREGA) to offer rural employment, constructing toilets, rural road and Sabuj Sathi, bicycle distribution scheme to students from classes 9 to 12 along with Kanyashree, a scholarship scheme for economically disadvantaged girls that stand out as rural vote clinchers. One should remember how similar schemes such as offering bicycles to girls in Bihar along with rural connectivity through roads have been vote clinchers for Nitish Kumar in Bihar. Similar social support projects by Jayalalitha which are often termed ‘freebies’ clinched her votes from the masses. All these indicate social sector spending that reaches people who can really experience the benefits of such policies does work against anti-incumbency. The ‘development’ mantra still work as it did for Modi in 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

No National Leader Magic but Local Heroes

As BJP learnt through its bitter experiences of Delhi and Bihar that projecting Modi as its vote catcher strategy has very limited appeal when it comes to regional politics. As Shiv Sena, BJP ally, has aptly described in Saamna: “The Modi magic has not worked. It is unfortunate but the BJP hasn’t achieved great success in these states.”Except for a manufactured Gujarat Development Model which appealed people in 2014, neither Modi nor Nitish, nor Mamata have national appeal. They are mere regional leaders. If anyone wishes to reach the national stature they need to hone their political communication as did Modi. However, despite such construction as a national leader, Modi’s appeal may not hold nationally again. Saamna has said it in as many words. This is much less for the congress whose many leaders with national appeal have little chance to be projected Prime Ministerial and Rahul Gandhi has not managed to come out of the damaged perception to his character as a weakling and imbecile. From the perception point of view he seems to have little chance to recover because Congress lacks political communication and perception management skills.

Realising it well in time BJP projected the local leaders and listened to them (Also thanks to their great catch Himanta Biswa Sarma due to congress and Rahul Gandhi’s blunder and Congress’ failure to align with AIUDF allowing 34 per cent Muslim vote to splinter). Both Congress and CPI (M), with their top down approach have failed to see how important it is to recognise and support local leadership and move beyond dynastic and politburo politics of dying old men and their progeny. Despite knowing well that Himanta Biswa Sarma was the architect of its previous victories Congress let go of him while the BJP grabbed him with open arms. Politically, there couldn’t be a bigger blunder that Rahul Gandhi would have to explain than preferring Gaurav Gogoi, Tarun Gogoi’s son, to great poll strategist and second in command Biswa Sarma. If sycophancy and dynastic politics is what Rahul Gandhi feels comfortable about, soon he will be left with half-witted progeny of its dying breed of octogenarians whose appeal no more works. Same goes for Left leaders whose old party heavy-weights thrusting their decisions on local leadership works against its very survival. Once again it proves that in Assembly elections national figures such as Modi, Sonia, Rahul, Yechury etc. have very limited appeal. Local leadership can make huge difference in how local politics works. What BJP learnt with pain Congress and the Left have been slow to realise and, hence, continue repeat the pain. As for the BJP in Assam its timely alliance with AGP and others did the trick which is what Congress failed due to its preference for dynastic politics and cowardice to align with AIUDF.

Not much difference between BJP and Congress

Minus RSS, its cadre and Machiavellian strategy of disinformation (not to forget its violent vigilante groups), BJP is Congress in another name. Not only its governance is similar, but even its dynastic politics and tolerance for corruption is just like Congress. If BJP’s saving factor is Modi’s image as a non-corrupt ‘bachelor’ (like Mamata in Bengal), its party cadres, leaders (such as Yeddyurappa in Karnataka) and even the state governments such a Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, and Jharkhand are no different than Congress. Its manner of using Article 360 to topple Opposition-ruled states shows that it is no different than Congress of yester years. What Congress did stealthily i.e. support Neoliberal Capitalism BJP does blatantly losing the goodwill of the poor and farming classes. If the central leadership of Congress is arrogant (as alleged about Rahul Gandhi), BJP central leadership is equally arrogant. While Modi and Amit Shah paid for this arrogance in Delhi and Bihar and changed accordingly, Congress paid for it in Assam, West Bengal and Kerala. So, to imagine that a new era has come about with BJP emerging as a national party in place of Congress and to expect that something new is in the air seems a wishful thinking because both parties operate without much difference despite Modi’s electoral promises.

Is this the demise of Congress?

A legitimate question, though quite premature. In democratic politics and in a vibrant democracy like India where voting is relatively free, what people give once, they can take away at another time. If the Indian voter has not forgiven Congress, DMK and the Left for their apathy, monumental corruption and arrogance, neither BJP, Mamata nor Jayalalitha should feel smug about their victories. If it was Congress’ turn to suffer anti-incumbency in this round it could be BJP, Mamata or Jayalalitha’s next time round. Hence, to write off any party, even the Congress, just by considering the current poll results, is a premature and foolish venture. Simply because, even a simple comparison of the total number of seats won by Congress (140) and the BJP (64) shows that BJP’s wish to create a “Congress mukt Bharat” is a mere pipe dream. If the Congress manages to do some things right (which is a discussion for another of my comment articles later) it can certainly bounce back. Delhi local polls prove it well. That’s what happened with BJP. Not long ago it only had two parliamentary seats. Also, one must remember that despite having leaders of Vajpayee and Advani’s stature NDA lost power in 2004. This had happened despite Babri Masjid demolition and use of Hindutva violence against minorities. So, Indian voter is much more intelligent than pollsters, the media and political pundits. No one is indispensable in a democracy, none is untouchable. Whether it is Indira Gandhi, Vajpayee, Narendra Modi or Rahul Gandhi, all that it matters is ground level experience of development and political perception built around it, not to forget the right combination of social groups, to bounce back or go under. Lok Sabha 2014, Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Delhi, Bihar and Tamil Nadu show this very eloquently.

About the Author: Dr Samuel Sequeira is a Research Associate at the School of English, Communication and Philosophy at the Cardiff University, Wales, UK. He is currently researching on issues such as South Asian Immigrants in Wales, Immigration discourses, nationalism, Identity and conflict.

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