NEW DELHI : Inflation based on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) fell to a lower-than-expected 5.2% from 5.7% in March, according to data released by the ministry of commerce and industry on Thursday.

The decline was in contrast to the rise in consumer inflation to a three-month high of 8.59% in April from 8.31% in March.

The weather department has forecast monsoon rainfall at 95% of the long-term average – which qualifies as a slightly deficient rainfall but not drought – because of the El Nino effect. This could give an upward push to prices.

The resumption of monthly increases in diesel prices after the conclusion of the election process is also expected to provide an upward push to prices.

The Reserve Bank of India is likely to keep interest rates on hold in its June 3 monetary review because of the contrasting movement of the two inflation gauges even as the central bank now gives more weight to consumer inflation.