By Amlan Home Chowdhury
Patna: As Bihar is going to polls to constitute its Legislative Assembly, the question of which way the Muslims and Dalits will tilt this time becomes a very major political issue as they are two factors that will decide the results.
This assumes massive significance under the given circumstances as the political arithmetic of this hyper-caste and minority-sensitive state changed dramatically after Nitish Kumar joined the BJP camp to retain the chair of Chief Minister.
The RJD, primarily depending on the vote-chunk of the Muslims, Yadavas and Dalits, is currently leaving no stone unturned to portray Nitish and the JD(U) as a person and party willing to betray anyone for political gains. The Congress and Left parties have also intensified their attacks Nitish, on the grounds of leaving the UPA to join the NDA to save his chair.
Nitish left the UPA as he ran into trouble with the RJD-Congress alliance. He openly joined in hands with the BJP even though he had been attacking Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his policies regularly. He mellowed down soon after joining the NDA Bloc in Bihar and started praising the latter.
This sudden change of colour, however, did not go unnoticed by the people and political observers.
During the last poll, Bihar saw a four-corner battle with the RJD, JDU and Congress on one side and BJP on the other. The division of votes, like-wise, was also quite clear. The upper caste Hindus voted for the BJP, while the Muslims, Dalit and Yadavas opted for the RJD-JDU-Congress combine.
This time, things are not going to go according to plan as Nitish Kumar has massively antagonized the Muslims, Dalit and Yadavas, who have the capacity to change the poll results. Though Nitish Kumar depended greatly on the Muslim votes, this year there is a big question mark attached as it is unsure of whether they favour him at the polling booths or not.
It is no secret, that Muslims are opposed to the Hindutva move. The BJP is already hyping the Ayodhya Mandir issue to net the maximum number of Hindu voters. Traditionally, Nitish Kumar was not favoured by the upper castes of Bihar due to his tilt towards the Muslim vote bank.
Interestingly, this Muslim vote bank is now likely to tilt towards the RJD and Congress. Together with the Dalit and Yadava support, the RJD can expect to gain much from the Muslim voters who are likely to shun Nitish Kumar.
Perhaps the biggest faux pas by Nitish Kumar was to side with the BJP and leaving the RJD.
Now the question is for whom will the Muslims, Dalits and Yadavas vote? The Muslims are openly saying that the BJP does not need them and they too have no need for the BJP. The Dalits, who earlier supported both the RJD and JDU, are not happy with Nitish Kumar.
With former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi leaving the UPA, the Maha-Dalit and Dalit votes are now sharply divided with a section supporting Manjhi, who may ultimately support the BJP.
As far as the Yadava vote bank is concerned, they are still with the RJD.
As we know, Bihar in Indian electoral politics is traditionally infamous for caste line voting, rebel factor, booth capturing and cutting of votes. One need not be a political pundit to predict that the votes may shift away from the JD(U).
On analyzing the four latest developments, we will know the cornering of the JD(U) and the upper hand the RJD-Congress combine has in the electoral arena. The division of the Muslims and lower caste is almost sure as the LJP this year seems determined to cash in on these two vote banks.
During the last Legislative Assembly polls, Lalu Prasad Yadav campaigned in a whirlwind manner, despite his poor health, for the RJD and JD(U). But, we all know the result. However, that is the past.
The future of the RJD, though uncertain, is better than that of the JD(U).
Nitish Kumar seems to be depending greatly on the Kurmi vote, the caste to which he belongs. However, the banning of alcohol, resulting in bootlegging of massive proportions, is also going against him. The voters are openly saying that Nitish Kumar is power hungry and an opportunist, otherwise he would not have left the RJD and joined the BJP, who is used to criticize.
The sharing of seats between the JD(U) and the BJP have not been viewed very nicely by the Muslim voters, who are now utterly surprised that the Nitish, who till recently talked of secularism, is silent on the subject and is the dais with the BJP.
The formation of Hindustani Awam Morcha by former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi is creating additional problems for Nitish as whatever little percentage of Dalit votes he expected to receive may not come to the JD(U)’s kitty.
The factor of the Mahagathbandhan cannot be seen anywhere in Bihar. Naturally, all the major parties that are opposed to the BJP are forced to make it alone. Interestingly, the Congress is also not showing any keenness on being a constituent in Bihar’s version of the Mahagathbandhan.
The electorate in Bihar is currently saying that there might be very big surprises in the results, as none of the major political parties are in a good condition. The people are not all that hopeful about a rosy performance by the BJP and JD(U).
