The scorching summer has engulfed several districts in Karnataka under a relentless heatwave, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) foreseeing this condition persisting into May, interspersed with brief relief due to anticipated rains. A. Prasad, a senior scientist at IMD Bengaluru, engaged in a discussion with DH’s Sneha Ramesh, shedding light on the climatic conditions, prediction challenges, and the journey of IMD Bengaluru. Here are the highlights:
Duration of Heatwave: IMD’s initial forecasts indicate Karnataka bracing for a severe summer, evident from the current ground realities. The elevated temperatures are expected to persist, with the mercury hovering one or two degrees above normal levels throughout April and May. The frequency of heatwave days is projected to surpass that of recent years. However, a semblance of relief is anticipated with near-average or slightly below-average rainfall in April and May.
Reasons for Intense Heat: Global factors such as the El Niño effect, contributing to 2023 being declared the warmest year on record, are influencing Karnataka’s soaring temperatures. Additionally, local factors like rapid urbanization, population growth, and increased greenhouse gas emissions exacerbate the impact, underscoring the state’s vulnerability to climate change. While patterns aren’t fixed, varying conditions from year to year underscore the complexity of climatic dynamics.
Monsoon Expectations: Precise monsoon predictions will be available by May. Favorable indicators, including the anticipated neutralization of the El Niño index and the positive shift of the Indian Ocean Depolarization Factor by June, suggest promising monsoon prospects. However, the definitive forecast awaits further analysis.
Evolution of Prediction Accuracy and Challenges: From subjective predictions for two days to today’s objective location-based forecasts using numerical weather prediction models, IMD’s forecasting capabilities have significantly evolved. Technological advancements, including machine learning, automation, radar, satellite imagery, and Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), have bolstered accuracy, particularly in cyclone forecasting, minimizing casualties.
History of IMD Bengaluru and Technological Advancements: Established in 1867, IMD Bengaluru has a venerable history, witnessing transformative technological interventions over the years. The imminent installation of Karnataka’s first Doppler weather radar in Bengaluru promises enhanced precision in short-term predictions, reducing dependence on distant radars in Goa, Hyderabad, and Chennai.
In summary, IMD’s ongoing efforts underscore a commitment to leveraging technology and expertise in navigating the complexities of weather forecasting, ensuring timely and accurate predictions for Karnataka and beyond.
