Scientists at the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) have forecasted the potential arrival of pre-monsoon showers in Karnataka, signaling an early onset of rainfall if a cyclone forms after the summer rains. The IMD anticipates moderate summer rainfall in the second week of April, accompanied by thunder and lightning.
Historically, cyclones have played a significant role in influencing pre-monsoon rains. However, the absence of any cyclone formations in April is noted by senior scientist Prasad of the IMD. Despite this, the prediction of weather patterns towards the end of April or May remains challenging. Prasad emphasizes that if a cyclone were to hit at the beginning of the monsoon season, it could potentially delay the onset of monsoon rains.
Reflecting on past occurrences, the IMD recalls significant cyclones like Cyclone Nisarga in the Arabian Sea and Cyclone Hampan in the Bay of Bengal in 2020, which contributed to exceptionally robust monsoon seasons with widespread heavy rainfall. However, such conditions have not been replicated since 2020.
The IMD’s insights underscore the importance of closely monitoring cyclone formations and their potential impacts on regional weather patterns, particularly as they relate to the onset and progression of the monsoon season.
